Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32cd243f48a109682d90ad7e50c1f4ec2d64d812ad6a5f1eaa7d1124605c7e2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 28c | 7,501$2,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,118.67 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 79c | 6,760$5,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.1 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 47c | 3,936$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,086.59 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 23c | 3,501$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.72 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 16c | 3,327$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.75 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked No | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 8c | 1,325$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x287a…02d2backed No | 75c | 1,291$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.64 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 77c | 1,100$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b5…a2a7backed Yes | 58c | 946.15$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Yes | 20c | 733.76$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.27 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 616.78$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.78 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 48c | 608.32$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99a…388ebacked No | 45c | 607.04$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.07 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 24c | 601.72$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.14 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 49c | 573.93$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.15 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 10c | 473$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Yes | 56c | 432$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.92 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 20c | 424.9$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.54 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 77c | 386.9$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 42c | 373.23$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.69 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769b…2ea9backed Yes | 26c | 367.54$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 18c | 363.95$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3883…6bb0backed Yes | 50c | 361.76$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 38c | 240.14$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked No | 46c | 210.35$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.59 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…4983backed Yes | 29c | 203.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 23c | 195.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…77b5backed Yes | 18c | 193.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…5898backed Yes | 18c | 190.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes | 16c | 170.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…7b41backed Yes | 27c | 169.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 32c | 160.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 18c | 145.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe0…5adbbacked Yes | 49c | 138.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Yes | 23c | 136.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…bbd3backed No | 75c | 121$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3696…69cebacked No | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 57 | 71.9%41 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…45b2backed No | 79c | 117.48$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 18c | 116.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 26c | 95.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 23c | 82.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed8…3affbacked Yes | 61c | 80.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 18c | 76.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d0…ec9abacked Yes | 23c | 74.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827f…8027backed Yes | 44c | 74.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yes | 35c | 71.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Yes | 38c | 58.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…34f2backed Yes | 55c | 58.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed No | 77c | 56.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe36…9413backed No | 71c | 53.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 57c | 48.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 27c | 46.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…c639backed Yes | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb92…0370backed Yes | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed No | 78c | 37.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 75cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed Yes | 58c | 34.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95c0…f0c5backed Yes | 58c | 29.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805b…ee0cbacked No | 65c | 28.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 53c | 27.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked No | 64c | 21.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6444…672ebacked No | 77c | 21.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…9d28backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 76c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked No | 78c | 12.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-04-19?No won
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.