Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x295742124c1dc3d9b545049f69d26ce89c4b8d15e1a27111b9dec608220cbcb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 514.16$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.79 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 426.12$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 79c | 258.57$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 60c | 249.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 33c | 242.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.18 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 223.06$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 40c | 215.25$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.98 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…c853backed Yes | 23c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 52c | 193.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad63…a18dbacked Yes | 6c | 181.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 46c | 179.85$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.53 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 24c | 174.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 164$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 132.73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 124.9$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 10c | 116.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 114.64$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 114.14$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 34c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 104.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 103.38$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 51c | 96.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 24c | 96.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 20c | 90.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 76c | 90.51$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 89.49$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067e…625bbacked Yes | 17c | 89.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 26c | 79.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b0…56e8backed Yes | 28c | 71.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 57.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…b5acbacked Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 65c | 54.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 53.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 80c | 50.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 20c | 50.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 24c | 50.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 22c | 49.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 27c | 47.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 79c | 46.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 76c | 43.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 43.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f3…1fc1backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…f8c6backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 38.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 35.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 73c | 32.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 60c | 32.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…a3fdbacked Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 44c | 27.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 55c | 27.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 80c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 69c | 21.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 70c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 72c | 15.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…76b3backed No | 79c | 15.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 72c | 15.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.