Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6abb455083722a17d1865cea0090cf9cde5f0c6bc8632f1f1e72be403c58cfd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 20c | 1,397$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.82 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…c853backed Yes | 65c | 1,042$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.39 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 80c | 637.83$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.7 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 437.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 374.96$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 276.42$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 263.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x147e…eb1ebacked No | 4c | 256.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 244.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 48c | 202.34$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.14 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 17c | 198$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 33c | 196.24$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 170.25$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 164.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 155$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.38 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 29c | 150$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 18c | 147.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.62 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 144.9$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 144.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 34c | 138.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 77c | 126.44$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 23c | 124$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.21 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 121.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 110.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.23 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 32c | 110$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 30c | 104.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 57c | 95.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 68c | 84.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 78.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 29c | 73.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 74c | 68.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 24c | 68.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 46c | 65.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 31c | 62.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…f5ecbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked No | 70c | 57.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 19c | 55.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 77c | 52.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b0…56e8backed Yes | 20c | 50.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 31c | 50.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 69c | 49.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 77c | 47.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 28c | 46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 26c | 44.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 64c | 44.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 70c | 43.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf3…ca4abacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…f8c6backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 39.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 38c | 39.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 29c | 38.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 59c | 32.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 79c | 29.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d6…49b0backed No | 43c | 29.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe95d…d01bbacked Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 51c | 22.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 74c | 20.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 62c | 16.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 77c | 14.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.