Tennis · resolved market
ITF M25 Muttenz Men: Luca Staeheli vs Louis Wessels
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29902f395bdaf0b43fa20287ae71bf8b21afc06d715427f6572f2d3fbdd6733c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Luca Staeheliof Luca Staeheli, Louis Wessels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Louis Wessels | 51c | 3,743$1,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,893.13 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3663…8950backed Louis Wessels | 26c | 2,700$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.51 | 392 | 43.4%170 W · 222 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2f1ebacked Luca Staeheli | 60c | 2,488$1,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.3 | 1,111 | 45.3%503 W · 608 L | -35.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Luca Staeheli | 49c | 2,020$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.41 | 365 | 48.2%176 W · 189 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Louis Wessels | 52c | 1,672$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.63 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d3…86f1backed Luca Staeheli | 51c | 1,363$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Luca Staeheli | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1,923 | 55.4%1,066 W · 857 L | -44.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc186…e96ebacked Luca Staeheli | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa514…9c8fbacked Luca Staeheli | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 117 | 60.7%71 W · 46 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…3250backed Luca Staeheli | 51c | 984.92$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.92 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Louis Wessels | 48c | 729.27$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.51 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Louis Wessels | 52c | 700$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Luca Staeheli | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Louis Wessels | 43c | 525.92$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.58 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Luca Staeheli | 53c | 456.43$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.72 | 255 | 46.7%119 W · 136 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Louis Wessels | 48c | 439.21$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.57 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Louis Wessels | 48c | 375$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Luca Staeheli | 50c | 374.39$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.17 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3b…9035backed Luca Staeheli | 50c | 341.21$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.21 | 307 | 55%169 W · 138 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Louis Wessels | 50c | 282.71$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.26 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…7833backed Louis Wessels | 28c | 275.1$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.37 | 151 | 15.9%24 W · 127 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Luca Staeheli | 52c | 267.31$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.31 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Louis Wessels | 46c | 241.56$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.12 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…2f1bbacked Luca Staeheli | 50c | 240$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 291 | 48.5%141 W · 150 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…235fbacked Louis Wessels | 47c | 239.68$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.65 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Luca Staeheli | 58c | 220.02$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadeb…5850backed Louis Wessels | 55c | 210.91$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Louis Wessels | 52c | 161.34$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Louis Wessels | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 255 | 42%107 W · 148 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Luca Staeheli | 76c | 140.04$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 277 | 49.1%136 W · 141 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Luca Staeheli | 44c | 126.74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.74 | 1,023 | 41.3%422 W · 601 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Luca Staeheli | 49c | 120.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Louis Wessels | 40c | 100.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 267 | 48.7%130 W · 137 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Luca Staeheli | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Luca Staeheli | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 721 | 47.3%341 W · 380 L | -18.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Luca Staeheli | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Louis Wessels | 47c | 99.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Luca Staeheli | 51c | 88.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefbc…b344backed Louis Wessels | 51c | 88.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 301 | 47.5%143 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…5bfdbacked Luca Staeheli | 50c | 80.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Louis Wessels | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Louis Wessels | 40c | 69.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Luca Staeheli | 48c | 67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Luca Staeheli | 76c | 61.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebde…1de0backed Louis Wessels | 57c | 59.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 891 | 34.3%306 W · 585 L | -40.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec17…0af9backed Louis Wessels | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 128 | 39.1%50 W · 78 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b3…e104backed Louis Wessels | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x728f…af82backed Luca Staeheli | 49c | 54.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Louis Wessels | 53c | 53.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Luca Staeheli | 48c | 52.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 277 | 44.4%123 W · 154 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Luca Staeheli | 49c | 51.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Luca Staeheli | 49c | 51.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Luca Staeheli | 79c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…da8cbacked Louis Wessels | 38c | 44.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Luca Staeheli | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Luca Staeheli | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 221 | 52%115 W · 106 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Luca Staeheli | 49c | 39.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Luca Staeheli | 55c | 37.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 455 | 66.4%302 W · 153 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Louis Wessels | 64c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Louis Wessels | 45c | 33.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Luca Staeheli | 55c | 29.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Luca Staeheli | 69c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…cebfbacked Luca Staeheli | 79c | 27.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 671 | 78.7%528 W · 143 L | +49.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked Luca Staeheli | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed Luca Staeheli | 49c | 26.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 133 | 54.9%73 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Luca Staeheli | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 690 | 47%324 W · 366 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…da3bbacked Luca Staeheli | 44c | 24.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 274 | 48.5%133 W · 141 L | +24.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc02…ce2abacked Luca Staeheli | 78c | 23.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 215 | 72.6%156 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Luca Staeheli | 52c | 21.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 509 | 46.6%237 W · 272 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF M25 Muttenz Men: Luca Staeheli vs Louis Wesselsthis page
- ITF M25 Muttenz Men: Completed Match: Luca Staeheli vs Louis WesselsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.