MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29b64abfd5ac6754996795d2021f57f65d591e2805b760f96840e1dd91846051
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2a0…b16bbacked Under | 54c | 7,464$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 5,883$2,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,076.52 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 1,770$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.08 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 1,288$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.82 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 33c | 999.99$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 992.28$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.4 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 19c | 430.16$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.78 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 50c | 359$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.84 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 41c | 186.5$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.32 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 62c | 160.11$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.27 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 67c | 160$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed Over | 38c | 131.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 59c | 114$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 60c | 107.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 60c | 102.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 69c | 102$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 64c | 82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 58c | 71.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Under | 64c | 69.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 46c | 67.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Under | 57c | 65.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 38c | 61.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 548 | 15.9%87 W · 461 L | -41.1wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 62c | 61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 59c | 46.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 36c | 41.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Over | 43c | 37.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…cc7cbacked Over | 64c | 28.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Over | 60c | 26.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 52c | 21.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago CubsDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 14.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 15.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago CubsYes won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.