Tennis · resolved market
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Maanshan 8 (China), hard: Chase Ferguson vs Fumin Jiang
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29dc2ab353c1db3ff1877bae3fc76789615b87ae96495062ee78f8bbc01d2994
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chase Fergusonof Chase Ferguson, Fumin Jiang
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed Fumin Jiang | 37c | 4,361$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 229 | 56.3%129 W · 100 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chase Ferguson | 63c | 3,039$1,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.44 | 11,877 | 43.3%5,143 W · 6,734 L | +19.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0828…a1a6backed Chase Ferguson | 66c | 2,056$1,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.84 | 276 | 48.2%133 W · 143 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1a…bbb8backed Fumin Jiang | 34c | 1,566$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.84 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ba…04e4backed Fumin Jiang | 46c | 1,142$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527 | 728 | 29.5%215 W · 513 L | -42.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbac…38d0backed Chase Ferguson | 66c | 1,080$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.17 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3705…9677backed Fumin Jiang | 35c | 971.74$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.24 | 139 | 28.8%40 W · 99 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Fumin Jiang | 31c | 831.04$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.57 | 8,921 | 42.6%3,799 W · 5,122 L | -169.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Chase Ferguson | 73c | 663.05$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.95 | 287 | 51.6%148 W · 139 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6982…a165backed Chase Ferguson | 68c | 654.13$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.5 | 639 | 56.5%361 W · 278 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…1a16backed Fumin Jiang | 43c | 618.39$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Chase Ferguson | 65c | 387.13$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.61 | 1,112 | 57.9%644 W · 468 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…391dbacked Chase Ferguson | 69c | 375$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.25 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Chase Ferguson | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 1,487 | 45.1%671 W · 816 L | +43.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Chase Ferguson | 68c | 338.24$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.29 | 6,584 | 54.4%3,584 W · 3,000 L | +286.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Chase Ferguson | 76c | 327.24$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.17 | 3,952 | 55.1%2,176 W · 1,776 L | +107.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad0…7150backed Chase Ferguson | 62c | 318.7$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.76 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…9caebacked Fumin Jiang | 44c | 303.86$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.7 | 458 | 27.1%124 W · 334 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Fumin Jiang | 31c | 287.27$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.73 | 877 | 38.2%335 W · 542 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Chase Ferguson | 70c | 285.87$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.68 | 155 | 47.1%73 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Fumin Jiang | 32c | 273.08$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.98 | 1,398 | 39.1%546 W · 852 L | -25.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Chase Ferguson | 65c | 270.49$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 1,109 | 48%532 W · 577 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Chase Ferguson | 76c | 230$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 7,791 | 47.8%3,722 W · 4,069 L | +39.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b06…c9f9backed Chase Ferguson | 55c | 216.36$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.36 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c2…2d18backed Fumin Jiang | 44c | 212.65$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.94 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…91fcbacked Fumin Jiang | 37c | 197.3$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 464 | 51.1%237 W · 227 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…24c2backed Fumin Jiang | 34c | 186$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Fumin Jiang | 37c | 180.91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.77 | 344 | 48.8%168 W · 176 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Chase Ferguson | 76c | 173.93$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 8,127 | 50.8%4,126 W · 4,001 L | +84.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Chase Ferguson | 63c | 173.15$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 1,856 | 46.8%868 W · 988 L | -55.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f76…dcc9backed Fumin Jiang | 32c | 162.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 995 | 51.6%513 W · 482 L | +28.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Chase Ferguson | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 637 | 57.3%365 W · 272 L | -21.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Fumin Jiang | 30c | 139.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 726 | 38.3%278 W · 448 L | -34.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Fumin Jiang | 38c | 116.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 387 | 31.3%121 W · 266 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…1cebbacked Chase Ferguson | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 256 | 37.9%97 W · 159 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e1…98dbbacked Fumin Jiang | 27c | 110.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…4d10backed Chase Ferguson | 73c | 109.88$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Chase Ferguson | 65c | 109.25$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 959 | 38%364 W · 595 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Fumin Jiang | 31c | 109.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 2,076 | 52.9%1,099 W · 977 L | +33.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…da3bbacked Chase Ferguson | 67c | 94.7$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 536 | 47%252 W · 284 L | +27.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe37f…6635backed Chase Ferguson | 69c | 85.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Chase Ferguson | 66c | 70.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 440 | 60%264 W · 176 L | +28.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Chase Ferguson | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1,039 | 49.9%518 W · 521 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Fumin Jiang | 39c | 67.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 559 | 46.3%259 W · 300 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Chase Ferguson | 72c | 64.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f73…7e82backed Fumin Jiang | 36c | 52.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…a3a9backed Fumin Jiang | 37c | 44.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Chase Ferguson | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 1,001 | 55.3%554 W · 447 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Chase Ferguson | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 564 | 56.9%321 W · 243 L | +17.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5850…fdd9backed Fumin Jiang | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7857…76d9backed Chase Ferguson | 63c | 31.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8468…3860backed Chase Ferguson | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 259 | 31.7%82 W · 177 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Fumin Jiang | 36c | 30.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 6,725 | 46.2%3,108 W · 3,617 L | -42.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…a282backed Chase Ferguson | 63c | 28.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…c00fbacked Chase Ferguson | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Chase Ferguson | 64c | 26.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 147 | 59.2%87 W · 60 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…d49dbacked Chase Ferguson | 74c | 22.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…8d69backed Chase Ferguson | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 45 | 75.6%34 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1e…6e1fbacked Chase Ferguson | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…45e8backed Chase Ferguson | 70c | 15.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0f…06fdbacked Chase Ferguson | 69c | 15.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Maanshan 8 (China), hard: Chase Ferguson vs Fumin Jiangthis page
- ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Maanshan 8 (China), hard: Completed Match: Chase Ferguson vs Fumin JiangYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.