South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Huracán vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a2a1ed144a696a4a6101d96abdf0a98eaa4d7f89c4b700389dd4313738e1a6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 45c | 3,792$1,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,078.39 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 69c | 3,094$2,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,140.24 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf80…3259backed Under | 49c | 2,162$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.8 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 49c | 2,000$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.97 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Over | 33c | 1,641$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.43 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…8654backed Under | 73c | 1,602$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.49 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 1,555$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.9 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 60c | 1,216$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.75 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 57c | 1,017$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.68 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…4803backed Over | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Over | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 931.05$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.57 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…2307backed Over | 52c | 826.25$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.98 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…01cdbacked Over | 39c | 791$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.49 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…9507backed Over | 66c | 599.99$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.31 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x677e…4a1fbacked Under | 28c | 517.42$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.43 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7245…4b00backed Under | 22c | 499.72$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.48 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 22c | 460.07$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.76 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb76b…d1f0backed Over | 23c | 452.71$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.74 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 42c | 428.57$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb54c…500abacked Over | 57c | 418.44$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.51 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…f983backed Under | 34c | 403.15$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.79 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Over | 69c | 361.47$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…142bbacked Under | 18c | 309.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.58 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 42c | 260.12$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.32 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 45c | 252.04$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.4 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…c41ebacked Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed Under | 39c | 226.37$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.81 | 108 | 28.7%31 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 73c | 208.28$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed Over | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 40c | 195.2$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 210 | 44.3%93 W · 117 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 50c | 182.35$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.17 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 73c | 181.9$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 13c | 178.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.56 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 46c | 161.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.98 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 50c | 161.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.86 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60f6…a196backed Over | 68c | 147.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x946f…67c1backed Under | 38c | 140.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.95 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9287…0098backed Over | 39c | 135.23$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 54c | 132$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 61c | 131.9$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f45…5390backed Under | 33c | 122.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.31 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 51c | 112.19$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.23 | 331 | 52.6%174 W · 157 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 51c | 109.95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 51c | 108.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Over | 53c | 107.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 65c | 103.71$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 107 | 66.4%71 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 49c | 99.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bc…67c2backed Under | 53c | 91.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 34c | 88.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 184 | 26.1%48 W · 136 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0368…9874backed Over | 43c | 84.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…4da4backed Over | 71c | 77.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…d8f0backed Over | 74c | 77.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Under | 16c | 68.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…371bbacked Over | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 71c | 63.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 352 | 46.9%165 W · 187 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 47c | 58.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec1e…0d9cbacked Over | 76c | 52.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 54c | 48.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 50c | 43.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 164 | 59.8%98 W · 66 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa9…09fabacked Over | 63c | 42.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 106 | 35.8%38 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2f…1673backed Over | 77c | 39.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…b02cbacked Under | 78c | 38.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Under | 50c | 37.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 71c | 36.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Under | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 45c | 32.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 67c | 31.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 264 | 65.9%174 W · 90 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 54c | 30.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0c…eebfbacked Over | 56c | 28.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4e…150cbacked Under | 48c | 25.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Under | 50c | 24.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…90b1backed Over | 52c | 23.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Under | 50c | 22.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 60c | 18.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 168 | 64.9%109 W · 59 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…8136backed Under | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Under | 78c | 16.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…fcb4backed Over | 63c | 15.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Huracán vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 0.5this page
- CA Huracán vs. CA Tucumán: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CA Huracán vs. CA Tucumán: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Huracán vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Huracán vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Huracán vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Huracán vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA Huracán vs. CA Tucumán: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA Huracán (-1.5)CA Tucumán won
- Spread: CA Huracán (-2.5)CA Tucumán won
- Spread: CA Tucumán (-1.5)CA Huracán won
- Spread: CA Tucumán (-2.5)CA Huracán won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.