TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Bilibili Gamingof Bilibili Gaming, Weibo Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,165
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,589

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,165 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f3f…5878backed Bilibili Gaming30c821.04$246 inWon+$574.7344335.4%157 W · 286 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed Bilibili Gaming26c540.54$141 inWon+$4001,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc57…f5f4backed Weibo Gaming74c540.54$400 inLost-$40016050.6%81 W · 79 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Weibo Gaming68c469.74$317 inLost-$317.31,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Weibo Gaming50c447.86$224 inLost-$223.9378050%390 W · 390 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x860e…a06dbacked Bilibili Gaming50c447.86$224 inWon+$223.935450%27 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Weibo Gaming12c301$37 inLost-$36.7113336.8%49 W · 84 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Bilibili Gaming34c296.94$100 inWon+$196.9482161%501 W · 320 L+1.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Bilibili Gaming34c235.29$80 inWon+$155.2980832.9%266 W · 542 L-43.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0775…b0c5backed Bilibili Gaming80c193.76$155 inWon+$39.225547.8%122 W · 133 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe02f…3d4cbacked Weibo Gaming66c160.94$106 inLost-$106.2210652.8%56 W · 50 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7ff…5c2abacked Weibo Gaming38c91.77$35 inLost-$35.338948.3%43 W · 46 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fa…b505backed Weibo Gaming72c83.43$60 inLost-$607352.1%38 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaae…ec88backed Weibo Gaming69c72.04$50 inLost-$5012736.2%46 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Bilibili Gaming35c71.71$25 inWon+$46.716930.4%21 W · 48 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb25e…39aabacked Bilibili Gaming68c70.45$48 inWon+$22.4524570.6%173 W · 72 L+13.6wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed Bilibili Gaming39c70.43$28 inWon+$42.6123240.5%94 W · 138 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Bilibili Gaming30c65.74$19 inWon+$46.3213525.2%34 W · 101 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Weibo Gaming65c61.71$40 inLost-$40.1155955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdefd…afbcbacked Bilibili Gaming38c57.39$22 inWon+$35.589538.9%37 W · 58 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xebdf…87c7backed Bilibili Gaming34c53.79$18 inWon+$35.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Weibo Gaming66c50$33 inLost-$3353954.7%295 W · 244 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6d7…3942backed Weibo Gaming70c50$35 inLost-$358760.9%53 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0947…f948backed Weibo Gaming70c40$28 inLost-$285961%36 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Weibo Gaming62c37.39$23 inLost-$23.181,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58e0…ebecbacked Weibo Gaming60c35$21 inLost-$214351.2%22 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03c4…6f4ebacked Bilibili Gaming33c30.62$10 inWon+$20.6224453.3%130 W · 114 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x863f…7b79backed Weibo Gaming62c20$12 inLost-$12.457655.9%322 W · 254 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.