F1 · resolved market
Hamilton vs. Russell
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ac58841cd100dbab657a8bbf6dcf229dead00e70505cd30e03823291993cbc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hamiltonof Hamilton, Russell
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Hamilton | 63c | 1,500$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Russell | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Russell | 35c | 823.25$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.74 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…f91bbacked Hamilton | 66c | 331.59$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a8…5df3backed Russell | 37c | 328$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.36 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Hamilton | 41c | 319.66$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.04 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Russell | 59c | 312.98$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.66 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Russell | 36c | 312.5$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Hamilton | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Hamilton | 65c | 265$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.9 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…2a5fbacked Russell | 75c | 214.67$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Russell | 34c | 200.09$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe06…d5d5backed Hamilton | 70c | 192.67$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d88…8d05backed Russell | 40c | 181.32$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9968…a104backed Russell | 38c | 162$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2515…a008backed Russell | 38c | 79.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Hamilton | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed Russell | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…3b2fbacked Russell | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Hamilton | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamilton vs. Russellthis page
- Albon vs. SainzAlbon won
- Alonso vs. Stroll Alonso won
- Hadjar vs. TsunodaHadjar won
- Hamilton vs. LeclercLeclerc won
- Leclerc vs. VerstappenLeclerc won
- Piastri vs. Norris Norris won
- Verstappen vs. Norris Norris won
- Verstappen vs. PiastriPiastri won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.