F1 · resolved market
Piastri vs. Norris
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ffe2834f318bf7100e498507d12f614889dfd4b3625be400a5bb4c58e54a93a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Norrisof Piastri, Norris
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd986…1320backed Norris | 43c | 869.7$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.56 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Norris | 48c | 350.77$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…8590backed Piastri | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Piastri | 52c | 330$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.52 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca36…7914backed Piastri | 58c | 219$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Piastri | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…c88fbacked Piastri | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa3…6449backed Norris | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Piastri | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Piastri | 38c | 174.6$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…6133backed Piastri | 47c | 149.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Norris | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Piastri | 30c | 97.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed Norris | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3845…4c75backed Piastri | 58c | 58.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Piastri | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Norris | 44c | 43.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…0f1cbacked Piastri | 55c | 40.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b0…6faebacked Piastri | 62c | 32.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Norris | 72c | 30.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4003…5a14backed Piastri | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ee…2a7dbacked Piastri | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Piastri | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…cd2bbacked Piastri | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1151…f522backed Norris | 77c | 16.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Piastri vs. Norris this page
- Albon vs. SainzAlbon won
- Alonso vs. Stroll Alonso won
- Hadjar vs. TsunodaHadjar won
- Hamilton vs. LeclercLeclerc won
- Hamilton vs. RussellHamilton won
- Leclerc vs. VerstappenLeclerc won
- Verstappen vs. Norris Norris won
- Verstappen vs. PiastriPiastri won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.