Australian A League · resolved market
Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-05-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ac8e711f890a02300f4ed4bd5ca7f0f35203e69a19a629884b612e44f088619
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 14c | 3,253$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.35 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 24c | 2,500$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 67c | 1,556$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.43 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed No | 70c | 1,434$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.71 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 63c | 1,078$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.73 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…dedebacked Yes | 37c | 1,052$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 78c | 444.25$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.16 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 23c | 436.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 31c | 419.35$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 77c | 391.09$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.95 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…4d49backed Yes | 22c | 387.52$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.25per pick | 44cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 14c | 273.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 66c | 180.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 80c | 165$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Yes | 13c | 156.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Yes | 25c | 152.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Yes | 33c | 119.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…d890backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 76c | 103.61$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 66c | 99.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…44b8backed Yes | 16c | 91.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 20c | 88.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…3302backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes | 35c | 72.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -6.3wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 80c | 64.16$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 110 | 50%55 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 32c | 62.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 67c | 50.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…c8a8backed Yes | 30c | 50.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 45.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 77c | 43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed No | 71c | 42.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 79c | 35.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 66c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 67c | 27.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4436…cf98backed No | 68c | 23.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-05-09?this page
- Will Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Sydney FC win on 2026-05-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.