Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C or higher on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ac99fdb3dbabe6db34117b988685ec22b68416c16c6f639e48dc2bbadbff35d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 36c | 703.32$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.51 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…7ce5backed Yes | 45c | 542.29$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.4 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed No | 69c | 453.92$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.17 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 26c | 399.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.54 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 55c | 358.87$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.91 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 304.7$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 274.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9a…2d52backed Yes | 73c | 274.77$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.77 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 273.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 68c | 262.33$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.27 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 245.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.89 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 184.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 33c | 168.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.61 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 55c | 147.11$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 23c | 146.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.73 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 21c | 144.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 141.05$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 41c | 139.77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.07 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 42c | 137.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 123.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 121.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.42 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…ac5cbacked No | 58c | 118.58$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 26c | 113.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.52 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 101.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 31c | 101.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 65c | 93.63$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed Yes | 20c | 90.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.81 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc8…4af3backed No | 74c | 90$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 37c | 89.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 86.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…2e89backed No | 65c | 86.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 47c | 85.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes | 30c | 77.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 39c | 77.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 68c | 73.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 79c | 70.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 53c | 66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 55c | 65.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 19c | 62.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed Yes | 47c | 60.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 80c | 59.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 79c | 58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 39c | 57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…befdbacked No | 60c | 54.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 32c | 51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 64c | 51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 65c | 48.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed No | 69c | 48.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 39c | 48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 63c | 47.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 65c | 46.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 48c | 45.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 44.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked Yes | 47c | 41.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfb…b57dbacked No | 73c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cda…1d96backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 69c | 39.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 53c | 39.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 37.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 74c | 33.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 60c | 27.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 58c | 26.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5616…61c1backed Yes | 70c | 26.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -87%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 61c | 25.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 70c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b39…51d6backed No | 55c | 20.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 67cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbccf…95e1backed No | 63c | 18.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 66c | 16.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc432…0fc9backed No | 65c | 15.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C or higher on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.