Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43b81587505c94baaf5411533dc2494f4be08d750e67e1158aa1f9b7774b6bd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 1c | 34,203$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,098$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…830abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9a…2d52backed Yes | 41c | 170.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 161.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes | 49c | 148.86$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 34c | 144.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 62c | 140.79$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.13 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 69c | 138.26$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 131.21$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 67c | 131$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 129.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 125.52$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 78c | 108.35$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 107.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 25c | 104.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 48c | 103.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb14d…8f95backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 99.04$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 52c | 94.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 34c | 88.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 78c | 84.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 14c | 84.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 82.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 81.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…2292backed Yes | 31c | 81.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 74c | 70.17$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 69.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 69c | 67.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 46c | 65.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 37c | 65.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 67c | 64.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 48c | 64.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 74c | 62.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 36c | 59.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 31c | 57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 56.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 54c | 55.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 53.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 46c | 51.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 37c | 48.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 27c | 47.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…dbb2backed No | 63c | 46.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…e7fdbacked Yes | 46c | 46.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0073…4cd5backed Yes | 40c | 41.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 37c | 40.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 72c | 40.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…0705backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -62%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 34.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 43c | 33.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…0b44backed Yes | 36c | 33.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 63c | 30.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 52c | 29.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked Yes | 41c | 27.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…7d89backed No | 74c | 26.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…f39bbacked No | 64c | 24.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked No | 73c | 23.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…e940backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 53c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 62c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 67c | 17.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 70c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ce…b36fbacked No | 66c | 17.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 75c | 16.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 73c | 13.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C or higher on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.