MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2af28ebfde83433153792ccf55636f098a8322f855d5e90e176d2b9702fd61f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 45c | 2,064$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.24 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 1,385$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Miami Marlins | 80c | 973$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.46 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 885$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 875$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Angels | 15c | 435.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 274.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.99 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Los Angeles Angels | 10c | 273$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Miami Marlins | 54c | 182.35$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.93 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 46c | 171.62$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 139.27$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.56 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Miami Marlins | 40c | 95.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb2…ee14backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 91.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 86.25$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 83.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 66.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Los Angeles Angels | 21c | 55.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3f…6500backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf7…c485backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 45.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 40.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.