MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd07e4a3a23bd75c1812d0bba8b91d19944b9c107e407ed14af20c15589039e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 58c | 1,500$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.31 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 43c | 1,367$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.99 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 40c | 1,149$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.19 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 44c | 1,017$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.2 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 57c | 874.79$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.79 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 44c | 840.9$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.92 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 55c | 727.94$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.94 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 44c | 581.29$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.14 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 43c | 533.47$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.12 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 58c | 525$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.5 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 56c | 360$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.4 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 56c | 356.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.39 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02b5…2ff8backed No | 57c | 350$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.5 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 44c | 291$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.74 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 43c | 280.51$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.97 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 42c | 266.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.14 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508f…775fbacked No | 52c | 222.62$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.62 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 41c | 205.7$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.34 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 37c | 184.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 43c | 178.07$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…77d4backed No | 56c | 175.53$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…944dbacked No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…63bfbacked No | 59c | 169.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 193 | 58%112 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed No | 57c | 160$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 44c | 133$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 45c | 114$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 45c | 107.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6808…899bbacked Yes | 46c | 97.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9f…10cabacked No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea5…26e3backed No | 58c | 86.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 44c | 81.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 56c | 80.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 52c | 72.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa422…d210backed No | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed No | 76c | 65.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Yes | 48c | 63.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…f0b2backed No | 71c | 54.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f0…0f4cbacked Yes | 29c | 54.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…40ecbacked No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 120 | 53.3%64 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 58c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Yes | 48c | 41.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6b…584cbacked No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76b4…5027backed Yes | 45c | 22.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlinsthis page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.