Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Shannon Taylor be the VA-01 Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b017739a0c7c19e429de14403468d8c36cdd08fca133ec2bd87bb8eb0db4a8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cc3…084abacked No | 20c | 1,359$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 4c | 703.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 17c | 659.58$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.92 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 6c | 580$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 8c | 555.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 4c | 549.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f5…5526backed No | 5c | 454$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 4c | 452$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 75c | 344.75$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 8c | 248.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked No | 25c | 219$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…02d4backed No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 9c | 192.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 10c | 192.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 9c | 183$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 10c | 170$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 79c | 160$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 11c | 121$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 17c | 90.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 20c | 80.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 18c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9779…c429backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb11f…336fbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…7cc3backed Yes | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shannon Taylor be the VA-01 Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Elizabeth Dempsey Beggs be the VA-01 Democratic nominee?No won
- Will Jason Knapp be the VA-01 Democratic nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.