Mls · resolved market
Will Orlando City SC vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b3b6175e3f33d2c167fabbe508b6ad4cc0fff08bf02ba3d4c503572f0e2023b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 73c | 6,301$4,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,571.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed No | 55c | 2,813$1,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 35c | 2,567$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,657.91 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 27c | 1,852$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed No | 39c | 1,031$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.94 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 26c | 620.65$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.26 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 73c | 592$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7101…884bbacked Yes | 66c | 452.9$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 31c | 446.69$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.57 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 34c | 442.64$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.88 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 31c | 269.06$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 23c | 264.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.36 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e34…36b1backed Yes | 60c | 259.38$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 73c | 255.51$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.94 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 78c | 254.27$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 27c | 252.46$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 74c | 217.77$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 67c | 213.73$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.73 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 37c | 189.42$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 40c | 185$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.09 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed No | 35c | 168.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 160.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 73c | 153$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked No | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 32c | 146.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 74c | 140.27$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…fa91backed No | 73c | 135.39$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 26c | 134.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked No | 75c | 133.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 12c | 119.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 32c | 112$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed No | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 101.01$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 51c | 99.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…6eaabacked Yes | 26c | 96.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…abf7backed Yes | 13c | 82.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 57c | 78.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 74c | 60.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 35c | 57.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 55.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Yes | 26c | 53.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed No | 73c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 34c | 48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 31c | 47.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…c163backed Yes | 74c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.9wins | -0.24per pick | 66cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9646…d98dbacked No | 72c | 25.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed No | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 73c | 21.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f4…b240backed No | 55c | 21.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 52c | 20.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 78c | 19.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked No | 75c | 15.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Orlando City SC vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw?this page
- Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-05-13?Yes won
- Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.