NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b3cbc534fccd4da23c1bdb7b7a569d8fc557d642726e74e0c9b747994840497
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 41c | 1,243$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.05 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 39c | 970.93$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.38 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 65c | 538.92$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 59c | 490$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.1 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Over | 62c | 458$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.96 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Over | 60c | 452.99$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.79 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Over | 60c | 392.5$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…0123backed Under | 70c | 369.6$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 35c | 335$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.75 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Over | 62c | 328.89$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.91 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 65c | 285$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.25 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 40c | 266$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.2 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed Under | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 58c | 163.38$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.76 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…7c67backed Under | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 35c | 85.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…104fbacked Under | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca6…0b8fbacked Over | 65c | 26.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
- Bucks vs. HeatHeat won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 232.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.