NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b7157ada94d9386853b371ff632183015e87551e425ddcc9d0aaf5a492dcad6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Heat, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81c2…5ca2backed Heat | 49c | 8,200$4,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,018 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf84b…3f64backed Bucks | 51c | 8,200$4,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,018 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Heat | 58c | 7,997$4,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,659.81 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185c…fa2fbacked Bucks | 51c | 7,800$3,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,822 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63e2…bb9bbacked Heat | 49c | 7,800$3,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,822 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…0a92backed Heat | 57c | 5,826$3,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,318.82 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03a9…37babacked Heat | 51c | 3,946$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Bucks | 51c | 3,084$1,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,511.13 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…4229backed Bucks | 51c | 2,923$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bucks | 49c | 2,542$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.62 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 49c | 2,151$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.54 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ba…6d81backed Heat | 50c | 2,150$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bucks | 43c | 2,013$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.15 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d0…6293backed Bucks | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Heat | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Heat | 51c | 1,892$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.77 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Bucks | 50c | 1,890$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat | 49c | 1,889$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.35 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1649…b6aabacked Bucks | 50c | 1,485$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bucks | 47c | 1,305$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.31 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 53c | 1,037$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.75 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…8a09backed Heat | 51c | 997.63$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -8.2wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…a48ebacked Bucks | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.31 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Heat | 49c | 700$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…56aebacked Heat | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5130…21a1backed Bucks | 50c | 650$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Bucks | 44c | 545.45$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.45 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bucks | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Bucks | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bucks | 43c | 444.19$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.19 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks | 46c | 370$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.7 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Heat | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…a454backed Heat | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Bucks | 51c | 223$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.27 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Bucks | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Heat | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Bucks | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…0d41backed Heat | 50c | 174.57$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bucks | 48c | 174.27$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.03 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Heat | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Heat | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed Heat | 51c | 98.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Heat | 51c | 88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bucks | 43c | 82.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bucks | 47c | 81.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Heat | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ce…14b4backed Bucks | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…930fbacked Heat | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -12.3wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Heat | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Bucks | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Bucks | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 244 | 54.1%132 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Bucks | 50c | 32.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…c733backed Bucks | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d60…50dbbacked Heat | 59c | 25.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Heat | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 210 | 62.9%132 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…0cbebacked Heat | 52c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
- Bucks vs. HeatHeat won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 231.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 232.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.