NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ecc4ca55fdb1ac30952c24a26491dc91d1272ac9fd15028935d39fdb0686d1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 54c | 5,366$2,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,444.23 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 4,633$2,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,170.55 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Under | 53c | 4,133$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,942.51 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…cdb0backed Over | 51c | 2,461$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.3 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…8860backed Over | 54c | 2,400$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 46c | 1,838$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.52 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 53c | 1,064$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 878.92$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.96 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 757.67$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.1 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Under | 50c | 580$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…d167backed Over | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 523$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.4 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 46c | 308.16$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.79 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bab…710abacked Over | 4c | 297$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 50c | 294$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.77 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 257.13$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.99 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 50c | 209.26$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.63 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 204.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.03 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 271 | 52%141 W · 130 L | -17.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 183.68$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.33 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked Under | 53c | 179.67$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.44 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 52c | 175$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.75 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 50c | 169$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0efd…a51cbacked Over | 54c | 90.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…0cbebacked Over | 48c | 84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Under | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 236 | 46.6%110 W · 126 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 50c | 30.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6abe…2205backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 237.5this page
- 1H Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
- Bucks vs. HeatHeat won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 231.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 232.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 233.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-10.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.