NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-7.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9239f36f1583f6e1a211b9dc246223a559f34513f3d9f5b7eb252e35945a076

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bucksof Heat, Bucks
Resolved: Nov 26, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $17,323
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $17,347

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,323 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd9dd…b525backed Bucks	42c	6,000$2,520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,480	443	37.9%168 W · 275 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat	58c	4,233$2,435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,435.34	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Heat	63c	2,354$1,483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,483.05	257	53.7%138 W · 119 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Bucks	45c	2,133$960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,173	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Heat	58c	1,810$1,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,049.8	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Bucks	46c	1,217$557 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$660.5	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bucks	46c	1,030$474 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$556	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Heat	54c	743.2$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404.96	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e84…768ebacked Heat	53c	505.66$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268	136	44.9%61 W · 75 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc0f…2fb1backed Heat	51c	268.99$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.19	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat	54c	255.98$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.15	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b72…34e7backed Bucks	50c	254$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd62d…0628backed Bucks	50c	236$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+102.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ab9…d6d7backed Heat	51c	221$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.71	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	55cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x744b…848ebacked Heat	55c	218.18$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	145	52.4%76 W · 69 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks	41c	214.96$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.23	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Bucks	41c	200$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118	354	47.7%169 W · 185 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe35e…7754backed Heat	52c	190$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.8	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.12per pick	58cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Bucks	49c	185.96$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.96	238	50%119 W · 119 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7180…bdbabacked Heat	57c	175.44$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	156	57.7%90 W · 66 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a9c…598dbacked Heat	63c	163.93$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.28	44	65.9%29 W · 15 L	+5.6wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks	46c	148$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.92	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat	54c	130.65$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.19	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Bucks	49c	128.94$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.76	950	49.4%469 W · 481 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bucks	44c	125$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.44	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Heat	58c	123$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.34	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Bucks	48c	108$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.16	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Heat	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Bucks	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.52	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x655d…b758backed Heat	53c	96.23$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	244	46.7%114 W · 130 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe42d…62febacked Bucks	50c	96$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	213	52.1%111 W · 102 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Heat	51c	86.61$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.17	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7795…1db8backed Heat	57c	70.18$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	199	57.8%115 W · 84 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Bucks	46c	66.11$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.75	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Heat	55c	63.64$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	377	55.7%210 W · 167 L	+11.1wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34da…367fbacked Bucks	47c	52.98$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.08	75	57.3%43 W · 32 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2a9…b9e9backed Heat	55c	52.73$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73da…8c9bbacked Heat	53c	47.17$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	-5.2wins	-0.13per pick	52cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x110d…cd01backed Heat	57c	43.86$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	345	56.2%194 W · 151 L	+17.1wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f17…2332backed Bucks	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	121	55.4%67 W · 54 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x227c…f0cbbacked Heat	55c	36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	-4.3wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-22%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ccc…4368backed Heat	53c	33.96$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	34	64.7%22 W · 12 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	59cpaid	+14%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Bucks	49c	30.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.61	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x020b…ddfabacked Bucks	47c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.9	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	74cpaid	+7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd95…52fbbacked Bucks	52c	26.92$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.92	139	38.8%54 W · 85 L	-14.7wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x08b5…5a6ebacked Bucks	46c	25.37$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.7	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6723…a540backed Bucks	79c	17$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.6	70	50%35 W · 35 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Heat (-7.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event