NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-6.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7497224dd9fa50bc9e1cbb6845e4b953e83078598bb9c7662c90937f992b4ae

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bucksof Heat, Bucks
Resolved: Nov 26, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $8,434
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $8,952

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,434 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd97c…aedbbacked Heat	63c	1,760$1,110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,110	184	52.7%97 W · 87 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Heat	56c	1,470$828 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$827.96	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Bucks	40c	1,001$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$600.72	625	41.9%262 W · 363 L	-32.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-11%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x753b…3d0fbacked Bucks	43c	961.06$413 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$547.8	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.12per pick	52cpaid	+23.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb97…a686backed Heat	57c	961.06$548 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$547.8	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-2.8wins	-0.18per pick	49cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks	43c	653.48$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$373.66	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2011…f296backed Heat	58c	538$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.96	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Bucks	30c	462.9$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$324.03	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bucks	47c	435.98$205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$231.07	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Heat	22c	310$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.2	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa15b…252ebacked Bucks	78c	310$242 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.2	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-3.3wins	-0.14per pick	58cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Bucks	44c	206.75$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.18	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Bucks	37c	200$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126	354	47.7%169 W · 185 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4f1…f0e8backed Heat	56c	178.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	81	55.6%45 W · 36 L	+2.9wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Bucks	39c	173.67$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.74	228	36.4%83 W · 145 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Bucks	44c	171$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.76	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bucks	39c	137$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.08	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bucks	43c	116.79$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.84	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Bucks	42c	110.99$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.38	249	46.6%116 W · 133 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x261b…b32bbacked Heat	59c	98.31$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	107	60.7%65 W · 42 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Heat	58c	68.97$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	710	44.6%317 W · 393 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb203…8e45backed Heat	60c	68.33$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	50	50%25 W · 25 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bucks	43c	54$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.92	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Bucks	31c	50$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.5	185	54.1%100 W · 85 L	+8.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3647…6250backed Bucks	53c	47.17$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.17	122	45.9%56 W · 66 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Heat	60c	46.67$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	905	60.8%550 W · 355 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Bucks	36c	46$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.44	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb375…59d6backed Bucks	44c	45.45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.68	86	52.3%45 W · 41 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5515…451dbacked Heat	59c	42.37$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	52	61.5%32 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	65cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b5f…3269backed Heat	59c	42.37$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	42	54.8%23 W · 19 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb48…a0b8backed Heat	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ca6…0b8fbacked Heat	60c	28.33$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	60cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf275…7050backed Heat	58c	22.32$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	79	55.7%44 W · 35 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f48…c93ebacked Heat	59c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Heat (-6.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event