Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b65fc4b91ba3cdd01add049379d0302762a23ce19c5e8418cd7b830176f42d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 865.38$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 544.11$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.76 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 420.51$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 329.87$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 328.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 21c | 321.43$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.43 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 15c | 308.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 251.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 17c | 214$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.62 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 30c | 208.4$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.38 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 204.54$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.08 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.99 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 147$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 27c | 141.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.28 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 134.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 15c | 110$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 105$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 14c | 105$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 14c | 100.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.12 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 14c | 96.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.52 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…35efbacked Yes | 25c | 89.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 70c | 88.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e49…4e74backed Yes | 14c | 83.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 80.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.76 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 17c | 79.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 17c | 79.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.59 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 22c | 77.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 14c | 73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.78 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 25c | 58.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 28c | 55.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 27c | 50.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 61c | 44.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 63c | 43.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 69c | 41.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 59c | 38.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 31.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 76c | 28.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 53c | 27.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 68c | 22.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 74c | 20.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.