Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4367602d19fd0b0f12879ad30f0f81733b49573d5796ea06d6ce4c877a2e8810
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 54c | 2,335$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.75 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 66c | 1,419$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.45 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 28c | 1,093$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.01 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 2c | 799.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 32c | 738.66$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.29 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 70c | 710.35$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 45c | 577.44$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.66 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 24c | 550$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 68c | 500$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.25 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 42c | 493.6$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.87 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 32c | 404.23$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.88 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 390.39$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 30c | 366.93$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.27 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 28c | 355.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked No | 49c | 347.48$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.6 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 43c | 347$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.79 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 75c | 284.48$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…0ea2backed Yes | 71c | 283.08$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 32c | 282.64$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.8 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 62c | 251.45$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.45 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 247.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.78 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 234.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.69 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 36c | 222.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 28c | 214$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.12 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 34c | 214$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.24 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 49c | 207.53$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.51 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 35c | 206.94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 38c | 201.15$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.14 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 25c | 200.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c67…3c86backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 43c | 193.25$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.62 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 30c | 189.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.96 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 67c | 186.91$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 38c | 171.92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 56c | 166.49$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.23 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked Yes | 69c | 155.55$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.33 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 76c | 150$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 57c | 147$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 32c | 137$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.16 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ff…6494backed Yes | 75c | 132.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 129.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.53 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 70c | 128.6$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 121.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.26 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 90.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 75c | 89.12$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 73c | 85.85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 69c | 85.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked No | 31c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 25c | 79.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 60c | 79.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 48c | 75.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 69c | 75.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 33c | 72.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 46c | 72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 27c | 71.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 32c | 70.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 72c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 65c | 69.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked No | 30c | 64.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93ee…4806backed No | 37c | 63.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 35c | 60.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…94f5backed No | 36c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5130…818bbacked Yes | 78c | 59.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -52%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 71c | 57.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 26c | 55.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 66c | 54.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed No | 32c | 54.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf48b…136fbacked Yes | 72c | 49.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdeef…b7f7backed Yes | 64c | 49.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 69c | 49.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…35efbacked No | 30c | 48.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 31c | 47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 26c | 46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 30c | 45.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46cc…3097backed No | 28c | 44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked No | 36c | 43.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked No | 33c | 42.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…876cbacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee0…79e8backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 35c | 39.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 72c | 38.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 43c | 37.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 32c | 37.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 75c | 36.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 55c | 35.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 71c | 34.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e49…4e74backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 67c | 28.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.