Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b6bd9a95e0bab117f9f304d5855031a80880123f90bb6117e31a25bbbcf405a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 388.09$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 36c | 342$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.82 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 300.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebd…ae71backed Yes | 28c | 226.27$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.91 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 190.29$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.25 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 11c | 180$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 64c | 178.34$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.14 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 175.21$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 152.8$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 134.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 124.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 12c | 118$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.97 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 29c | 112$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 30c | 112$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 105.74$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 71c | 103.03$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 95.29$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 72c | 91.41$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 70c | 65.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 42c | 64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 66c | 56.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 51.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 66c | 50.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 49.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 76c | 48.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 27c | 47.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 34c | 43.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 78c | 38.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 30c | 38.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 36.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 35c | 35.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 57c | 35.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 31.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 29.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…80a0backed Yes | 77c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…50ccbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 75c | 19.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 58c | 17.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 72c | 17.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.