Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0e010f8739e55f9c595ca865581bfb9e571da9588948531e91bb155f3f18a14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ebd…ae71backed No | 56c | 320$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.94 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 77c | 293.74$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.49 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 56c | 284.18$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.07 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 26c | 266.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 175.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…200fbacked Yes | 23c | 133.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 44c | 113.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 10c | 102$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 95.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 90.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 90.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 42c | 85.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 15c | 73.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 25c | 71.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 69.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce9…520bbacked Yes | 43c | 68.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 47c | 62.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 41c | 62.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 41c | 62.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 60.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 48c | 60.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 49c | 53.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 53.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 34c | 52.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 49.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 44c | 49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 30c | 43.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 32c | 40.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 39.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 39c | 39.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 38.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 39c | 37.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 37.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 53c | 31.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 31.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 26.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 40c | 25.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 67c | 24.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 23.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 67c | 22.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 75c | 20.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 75c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb635…2506backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 16.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.