Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bb42e9fe3d78411275bc6e754f4973d5547b93fa71c905af7157140a6989ab8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,457$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.48 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 592.52$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Yes | 22c | 375$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 15c | 313.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 27c | 248.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 19c | 160.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 79c | 150.22$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 144.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 133.81$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 13c | 123.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58f…cb99backed Yes | 19c | 109.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…f4d3backed Yes | 52c | 105.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 76c | 97.46$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 21c | 97.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 16c | 96.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 16c | 94.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 76.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 74.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 80c | 73.66$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 68c | 72.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 75c | 71.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 65.73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 64c | 64.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 78c | 62.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 62.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 31c | 58.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 66c | 57.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…52cbbacked Yes | 21c | 54.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 53.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 72c | 50.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 45.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 40.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…88c9backed Yes | 33c | 37.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 41c | 35.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 65c | 35.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 34.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 67c | 29.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 64c | 24.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 61c | 22.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10bd…8ff6backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 56c | 19.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 80c | 12.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.56 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.