Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde7bf8bfe5a5a08e87967e3c40191e5c44658c13fb1e7950632349736bd1e25f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 56c | 5,681$3,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,194.73 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 44c | 2,481$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.12 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 57c | 1,000$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.49 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 34c | 600$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 35c | 555.46$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 36c | 546.18$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.98 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 34c | 524.24$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.61 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 35c | 515.03$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.94 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 429.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 37c | 409.49$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.68 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 68c | 401.78$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 51c | 351.16$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.8 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 47c | 335.61$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 74c | 265.11$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 39c | 220$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.6 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1f…dbdabacked Yes | 46c | 208.83$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 61c | 199.96$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.77 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 42c | 194.69$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.51 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 40c | 188.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.13 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 69c | 180$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.3 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 67c | 143$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 38c | 128.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.37 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 38c | 122.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 34c | 121.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.86 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 42c | 119.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.59 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 43c | 116$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 36c | 110.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.03 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 110.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 59c | 109.58$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 64c | 106.37$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 104.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…f9c7backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…f4d3backed Yes | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 52c | 96.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 59c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 42c | 84.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 41c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 35c | 79.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 35c | 71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 69.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 60c | 69.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 72c | 69.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 44c | 63.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 37c | 50.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 62c | 48.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 74c | 45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 42c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 42c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 38c | 41.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb67…970abacked Yes | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 42c | 40.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 72c | 40.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d5…0560backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 58c | 38.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2a…040ebacked No | 29c | 38.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +493.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 38c | 37.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 57c | 36.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 47c | 36.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a3…f04fbacked Yes | 42c | 35.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 52c | 35.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 34c | 35.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 57c | 34.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed Yes | 54c | 34.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 35c | 33.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 50c | 33.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 46c | 32.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 34c | 30.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 62c | 29.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 45c | 28.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 47c | 28.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 61c | 26.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 67c | 25.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…6253backed No | 49c | 25.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…62b5backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Yes | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 46c | 23.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…1b47backed Yes | 59c | 20.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 56c | 18.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.