Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Lorient vs. FC Metz end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bddea1d5aaaccd6a3d02a096a37cfc0d8a07319c37a0a03bf4624a729193df5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 18c | 5,689$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.91 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…b3b7backed Yes | 78c | 2,214$1,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.83 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 31c | 1,863$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.32 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 27c | 1,411$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.04 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +18.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed No | 40c | 1,035$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.08 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 73c | 885.95$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.74 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 55c | 880.26$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.63 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed Yes | 28c | 790.46$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.13 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 73c | 642.32$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.96 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1d…820cbacked Yes | 76c | 508.18$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.96 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 67cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f41…f6debacked Yes | 77c | 435.7$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.37 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed No | 74c | 249.81$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.86 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 27c | 204.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.37 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c4…2852backed Yes | 62c | 200.2$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…62d3backed Yes | 31c | 155.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed No | 21c | 138.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 73c | 111.52$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.41 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…1591backed No | 31c | 102.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3504…e042backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Yes | 26c | 91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.34 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…5111backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 55c | 80.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 14c | 77.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf617…7ff1backed Yes | 35c | 71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb08f…29a2backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6840…5d75backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Yes | 26c | 62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c4…9da6backed Yes | 26c | 56.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 27c | 56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb2…e33fbacked Yes | 75c | 53.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 49c | 50.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…b752backed Yes | 26c | 46.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 38c | 45.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc20b…ba2fbacked Yes | 59c | 42.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Yes | 26c | 42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed No | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 53c | 36.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 74c | 32.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04f5…e53ebacked Yes | 79c | 31.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 31.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b2…7b9cbacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05b0…065abacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0d89backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 74cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…b87ebacked Yes | 58c | 24.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…d746backed No | 74c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…6224backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…6b2dbacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 74c | 19.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6049…3f83backed No | 75c | 19.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 74c | 19.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 57 | 78.9%45 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba16…4cacbacked No | 75c | 18.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff7…8e6dbacked No | 75c | 18.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 77cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed No | 73c | 16.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lorient vs. FC Metz end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Lorient win on 2026-01-04?No won
- Will FC Metz win on 2026-01-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.