Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Metz win on 2026-01-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe15f260367d7326177263f4e7f97619f3f045a5bd39ded2bf432c56952724cde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 33c | 11,522$3,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,840.34 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked No | 70c | 6,000$4,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 49c | 4,237$2,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160.01 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 79c | 4,000$3,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 43c | 2,708$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.24 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 14c | 1,790$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 67c | 1,460$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.37 | 150 | 71.3%107 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Yes | 21c | 1,231$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.56 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…e5b2backed No | 43c | 988.98$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 80c | 848$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.6 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 21c | 617.45$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.85 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 15c | 508.89$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Yes | 60c | 496.84$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 57c | 412.04$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.14 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Yes | 21c | 401.09$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…785abacked No | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5db…b42dbacked Yes | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…63fcbacked No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Yes | 64c | 243.79$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.63 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 5c | 210.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +6.0wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 13c | 159.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 22c | 159.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…bca3backed No | 79c | 130$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 18c | 119.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed No | 79c | 107$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39ad…887abacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125e…992cbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f5…e53ebacked Yes | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa07…deabbacked Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x981c…7f14backed Yes | 57c | 66.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde2d…abbabacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ff…d3fcbacked Yes | 21c | 54.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…790fbacked Yes | 21c | 54.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 21c | 51.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 204 | 54.4%111 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd843…a597backed Yes | 51c | 40.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9723…5896backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…1e05backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f1…b6d8backed Yes | 52c | 38.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 35c | 35.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b64…d59ebacked Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 80c | 32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd934…a00abacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…7b0cbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae7…411fbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Yes | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 79c | 20.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…432abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…b32cbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d91…3d3ebacked No | 80c | 18.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 79c | 17.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 57 | 78.9%45 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9257…ed5fbacked No | 80c | 17.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4678…ef7fbacked No | 80c | 17.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…2517backed No | 80c | 16.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +75%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ce…04d5backed No | 80c | 16.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0194…9c6abacked No | 80c | 15.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a98…13cabacked No | 80c | 14.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2c…71adbacked No | 80c | 14.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…6545backed No | 80c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x826d…0673backed No | 80c | 13.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…121fbacked No | 80c | 13.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4e…eb4ebacked No | 80c | 12.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda3d…f39dbacked No | 79c | 12.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Metz win on 2026-01-04?this page
- Will FC Lorient vs. FC Metz end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FC Lorient win on 2026-01-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.