MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bec555df2d9fae44a8d14619c9359d6f361385a8cee165be1a66ddb3e7a79f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 4,000$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 2,806$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 2,571$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 1,206$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.76 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 857.91$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.31 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 647.03$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.4 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 509.99$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.5 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 435.58$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.75 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 411.16$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.24 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 378.46$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.46 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 366.47$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.23 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 323.03$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.52 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 200.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 153$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 111$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 71.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 56.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 56.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 53.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 49.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 18.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.