MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe02af2cbd1702f0c7d3669b718e4cfe1e91f925935234ce70c67103c28b1f11c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3449…abdfbacked Over | 27c | 1,209$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.43 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 42c | 1,194$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.76 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 750.2$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.25 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 73c | 510.37$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.8 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…c264backed Under | 79c | 400$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 71c | 344.08$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.32 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 335.54$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.15 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de5…fa1fbacked Over | 54c | 311.36$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 44c | 220$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 39c | 219$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.59 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 46c | 218$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x663d…7d23backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 185.02$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.68 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3956…7fe3backed Under | 22c | 69.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 33c | 46.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 29c | 36.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 59c | 36.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 62c | 32.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 73c | 19.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 73c | 16.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Under | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.