TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$326,543
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$326,905

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $326,543 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb91a…3987backed Under45c222,222$100,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99,999.8913561.5%83 W · 52 L+15.2wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.5%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over55c103,515$56,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,581.8910,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over55c63,393$35,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,220.4111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bff…fc26backed Under44c62,982$27,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,524.143647%205 W · 231 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over55c57,098$31,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,741.324,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over56c19,000$10,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,2701,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over55c15,055$8,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,773.691,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over55c10,944$6,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,924.8132152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Over49c4,000$1,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,06014252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under51c3,891$1,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,977.848,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Over51c3,133$1,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,535.1784049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under45c3,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3501,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Over52c2,651$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.786548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over57c2,542$1,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.11,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Under49c2,275$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.673748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Over51c2,237$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.1392054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Under44c2,216$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.2975049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over55c2,138$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.158,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Under48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96024150.6%122 W · 119 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under47c1,850$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.959,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Over55c1,800$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81086653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Over47c1,741$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$917.99657.3%55 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over56c1,711$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.118,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x354b…4744backed Over57c1,665$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.334946.9%23 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Over55c1,423$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.4538353.5%205 W · 178 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9892…fd59backed Under1c1,281$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1524742.9%106 W · 141 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Under49c1,200$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5881,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Over55c1,109$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.9768053.2%362 W · 318 L+2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Over56c1,045$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.3989053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over54c1,028$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.73,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over55c1,004$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.5432857.9%190 W · 138 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b5…a2a7backed Under51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006942%29 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over55c955$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.751,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Over55c890$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.51,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Under49c715$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.3527249.3%134 W · 138 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Over55c700$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31585952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d1…83dabacked Under46c652.17$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013851.4%71 W · 67 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over56c651.9$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.334,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over48c622.07$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.946,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Over57c526.32$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.3251555.7%287 W · 228 L+19.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Over56c519.26$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.4869447.6%330 W · 364 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a47…3b21backed Over55c473$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.558856.8%50 W · 38 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Under56c455.56$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.112,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfad…3ca2backed Over55c455.25$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.253060%18 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Under45c434.28$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.431,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over56c362.2$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.592,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ad…71acbacked Over55c324.36$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.967342.5%31 W · 42 L-8.5wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-23%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Over57c303$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.2950748.7%247 W · 260 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Over55c297$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.6530048%144 W · 156 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Under43c228.1$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.981,00148.3%483 W · 518 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e4…4512backed Under44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a0d…92e9backed Under57c205.56$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.025147.1%24 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-18.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa99f…164bbacked Under49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010744.9%48 W · 59 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dfd…b845backed Over59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8226860.4%162 W · 106 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8fd…3e24backed Under54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.711047.3%52 W · 58 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc5c8…5e53backed Under58c195.44$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.886256.5%35 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Over55c182$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.91,13746.3%526 W · 611 L+36.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8238252.1%199 W · 183 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6717…d6ebbacked Over55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8237256.5%210 W · 162 L+1.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a38…d420backed Over55c176$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.214953.1%26 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over46c175.37$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.729547.1%139 W · 156 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf3f…1365backed Under59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015159.6%90 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over58c145$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.977050.5%389 W · 381 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over55c143.23$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.451,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12a1…d857backed Under53c107.55$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf16…b409backed Under47c106.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505846.6%27 W · 31 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4193…4853backed Under49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4984651.5%436 W · 410 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Under49c96$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0478155.6%434 W · 347 L+28.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under47c93.7$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.023,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac15…75a4backed Over55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.916051.7%31 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd77d…b01cbacked Over59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.754548.9%22 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcce5…7eb2backed Over59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.755345.3%24 W · 29 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under48c83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.222,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under42c81.44$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3599624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xba17…5c67backed Over55c73.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.077646.1%35 W · 41 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Over56c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.441637.5%156 W · 260 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over48c59$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.681,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd47a…67fabacked Over54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5612350.4%62 W · 61 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d6…1f24backed Over55c55.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9131258%181 W · 131 L+15.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15db…1da8backed Over55c54.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.557152.1%37 W · 34 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe246…dedcbacked Over57c52.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6326753.9%144 W · 123 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under47c52.48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4447743%205 W · 272 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over48c52.2$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.142,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Over46c50.11$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.111,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Under52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1782741.1%340 W · 487 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Under46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2355643.9%244 W · 312 L-38.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Under48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07c0…5dd2backed Over51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.518458.2%107 W · 77 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f6…0981backed Under46c46.96$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.615857.6%91 W · 67 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1400…765dbacked Over56c44.54$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.67440.5%30 W · 44 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over65c44.39$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.352,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3ff…ec82backed Under46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021554.9%118 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x71a9…04c8backed Under49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Under50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2046557.2%266 W · 199 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe36…5ceabacked Over56c36.91$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.142733.3%9 W · 18 L-4.9wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-33.9%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed Over55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3625448.4%123 W · 131 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Over79c36$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.461,01450.4%511 W · 503 L+52.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Over57c35.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3866056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under47c33.83$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.865,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3894…decfbacked Under57c30.11$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1637551.2%192 W · 183 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.