MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9242e8924664cb36d138c6810d123b9b023daa64de82f452840403ec735d4791
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 52c | 2,605$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.66 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Under | 45c | 1,800$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 1,080$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.73 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 50c | 939.52$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.38 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 59c | 825.28$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.92 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 795.25$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.24 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 44c | 711.26$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.12 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 452$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.08 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 77c | 388.76$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.35 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…c435backed Under | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 57c | 334.19$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.59 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 19c | 214.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 162.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.19 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…f9d8backed Under | 47c | 130.74$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…5e53backed Over | 77c | 129.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0d…92e9backed Over | 78c | 127.38$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x889a…0456backed Over | 45c | 115$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 63c | 103$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 66c | 89.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 55c | 83.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 54c | 72.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 61c | 50.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 54c | 39.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 62c | 33.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 74c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…7b6bbacked Over | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1213…dafdbacked Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…ebb7backed Under | 59c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa478…b871backed Under | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 67cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67fd…0339backed Under | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.