Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bf8cc193f1ec72cacee762a012675ab57d5853af6c8eb97145842a0f0791492
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 423.79$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 34c | 292.59$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 11c | 211.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.3 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 20c | 208$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.54 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 40c | 199.97$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.79 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 10c | 187.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 187.5$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 10c | 184.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.24 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 28c | 140.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 120.84$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 22c | 117.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 43c | 115.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 21c | 113.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.33 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 56c | 111.69$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5686…690abacked No | 75c | 103.2$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.06 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed No | 12c | 100.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 17c | 97.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 21c | 95.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.49 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 76c | 89.93$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd009…91afbacked No | 76c | 85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 74c | 75.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 31c | 70.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 78c | 70$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 64c | 63.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 24c | 60.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c02…ad12backed Yes | 75c | 53.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 19c | 51.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 28c | 46.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 44c | 45.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 22c | 45.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 56c | 44.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 77c | 41.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 39.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…3dbfbacked Yes | 77c | 39.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 52c | 38.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x165f…d7c0backed Yes | 30c | 34.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d5…d3a6backed Yes | 59c | 34.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 38c | 33.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 70c | 31.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 70c | 31.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 24.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or below on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.