Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c4d400911052e78a11666ba1d7a9c5f11e7c684ddd65fc50fc9ee607704b312
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed No | 70c | 14,159$9,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,247.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 9,954$2,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,799.45 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…4c87backed Yes | 26c | 1,854$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 72c | 1,324$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 1,250$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.97 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…d581backed Yes | 16c | 565.28$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed No | 75c | 457$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.25 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 434.56$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.1 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 30c | 419.25$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.62 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 25c | 399.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dce…b663backed No | 74c | 367.57$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.57 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 32c | 310$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5528…c098backed Yes | 27c | 274.07$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 13c | 272.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 77c | 260.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 94 | 76.6%72 W · 22 L | +16.8wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yes | 23c | 230.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 25c | 194$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 174.07$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…cc73backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 20c | 157.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…a5cebacked Yes | 26c | 138.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes | 24c | 128.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c38…de5abacked No | 74c | 91.88$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Yes | 25c | 89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf22…3e7dbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd302…0311backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8a…4d5fbacked No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1241…c496backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x771a…1734backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…a98bbacked Yes | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…c35dbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 26c | 39.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…2f4abacked No | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3b…6583backed Yes | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…616cbacked No | 74c | 31.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 74c | 23.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…33d5backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…4f81backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?this page
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-02-07?Yes won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.