Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-02-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x965a5a642690e76f7d238edaa5231324dd91d5de679e3db4956086bc9c07ee2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $372,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $475,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $372,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 58c | 75,000$43,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,449.63 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Yes | 55c | 71,559$39,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,885.62 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 73c | 37,905$27,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,056.19 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 46c | 16,953$7,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,742.04 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 36c | 14,926$5,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,373.5 | 166 | 52.4%87 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…9762backed Yes | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +260.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 62c | 6,766$4,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,568.06 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 43c | 5,050$2,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,170 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 79c | 3,512$2,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.93 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 71c | 3,116$2,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.7 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 37c | 2,884$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.73 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 40c | 2,740$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.28 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 78c | 2,245$1,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.75 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 19c | 2,151$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,742.62 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc92…8ebfbacked Yes | 45c | 1,000$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 19c | 641.06$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.06 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Yes | 59c | 504.53$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.54 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 35c | 472.5$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.46 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed No | 42c | 400$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.67 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 20c | 380$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.2 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 39c | 379$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.22 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 37c | 375.02$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.1 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 79c | 368.85$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.36 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 40c | 346.66$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.67 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 22c | 275.31$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.48 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 11c | 250.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 42c | 240$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.94 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed No | 57c | 178.59$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 36c | 150.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 20c | 149.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.77 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Yes | 80c | 145.6$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…8e2ebacked Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…f32fbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94f9…26afbacked Yes | 59c | 121.03$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +72%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…783bbacked Yes | 19c | 111$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 27cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 19c | 106.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.49 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…625dbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a30…b094backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f0…ad99backed No | 58c | 75.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc420…2badbacked No | 54c | 74.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 19c | 71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 71c | 64.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…0139backed No | 80c | 62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7226…873dbacked No | 44c | 58.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Yes | 74c | 54.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 201 | 53.7%108 W · 93 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed No | 52c | 48.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c8…a9ffbacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…35dfbacked No | 75c | 33.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…7556backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b9…df0cbacked Yes | 60c | 22.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed No | 55c | 21.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed No | 67c | 20.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…a9b1backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…6575backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-02-07?this page
- Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.