MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c4f72f978683defb8ec82acff568894158c1a711d7b78ae315c9d063af75105
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 72c | 34,676$24,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,845.22 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 29c | 32,135$9,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,209.69 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Boston Red Sox | 28c | 1,451$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.9 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 529.98$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.59 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Boston Red Sox | 19c | 476.4$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb97…7ae1backed Boston Red Sox | 25c | 428.81$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.47 | 85 | 34.1%29 W · 56 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Boston Red Sox | 24c | 366.26$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.99 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 334.42$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.7 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 303.04$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.75 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…2096backed Boston Red Sox | 25c | 200.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 72c | 199.09$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0571…c3c3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 69c | 173.72$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Boston Red Sox | 25c | 172$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Boston Red Sox | 28c | 166.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Boston Red Sox | 29c | 151.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Boston Red Sox | 28c | 146.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Boston Red Sox | 29c | 127.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Boston Red Sox | 24c | 120.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…17bdbacked Boston Red Sox | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Boston Red Sox | 31c | 116.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Boston Red Sox | 30c | 101$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Boston Red Sox | 31c | 89.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Tampa Bay Rays | 70c | 85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 72c | 71.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Boston Red Sox | 30c | 69.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 75c | 68.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 76c | 66.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed Boston Red Sox | 31c | 63.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 97 | 35.1%34 W · 63 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4436…cf98backed Boston Red Sox | 25c | 62.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -37%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Boston Red Sox | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 56.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Boston Red Sox | 22c | 55.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ae…7aa6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 46.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Boston Red Sox | 30c | 46.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Boston Red Sox | 34c | 44.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1c…27d3backed Boston Red Sox | 25c | 40.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Boston Red Sox | 30c | 37.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 29.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 27.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 71c | 21.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…1e00backed Tampa Bay Rays | 69c | 21.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 67c | 20.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f8…898ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 19.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 17.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red SoxTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.