MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x372794322d963c9fc5e713dfff2821b68d5d9f42f00d34361b3f144e7f751b9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 13,412$8,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,867.1 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 12,126$4,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,002.91 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 2,445$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.15 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 1,683$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.18 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 1,507$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.92 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 893.18$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.74 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 55c | 600.72$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.52 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 479.7$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.21 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 458.89$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.98 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 424$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.56 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 339.48$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.87 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 298.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.51 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 242.63$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.14 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 238.06$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.3 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 194.4$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.41 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0571…c3c3backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 163.51$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 156.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.79 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0621…0417backed Tampa Bay Rays | 49c | 135.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 123.53$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 54c | 87.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…132ebacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 68.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 68.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…8754backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 58.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 57.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 52.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Boston Red Sox | 29c | 51.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 51.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 50.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089f…f599backed Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 42.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 42.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…bc23backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 36.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…5d6cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 27.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Boston Red Sox | 56c | 27.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Boston Red Sox | 51c | 26.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 26.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0670…877bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 26.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Boston Red Sox | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x303c…7cb1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…9651backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 56.1%188 W · 147 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red SoxTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.