TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,851
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,063

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,851 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox66c13,412$8,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,867.110,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Tampa Bay Rays34c12,126$4,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,002.918,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox39c2,445$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.1512,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Tampa Bay Rays36c1,683$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.183,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Tampa Bay Rays34c1,507$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.924,51548.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L-46.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Boston Red Sox64c893.18$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.744,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox55c600.72$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.5211,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Tampa Bay Rays37c479.7$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.2167444.1%297 W · 377 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Tampa Bay Rays55c458.89$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.982,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays54c424$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.568,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Tampa Bay Rays37c339.48$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.8773748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Boston Red Sox67c298.22$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.5188153.7%473 W · 408 L+40.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Tampa Bay Rays34c242.63$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.1494648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa497…7891backed Tampa Bay Rays34c238.06$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.39549.5%47 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays36c194.4$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.415,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0571…c3c3backed Boston Red Sox67c163.51$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Tampa Bay Rays34c156.21$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.7967742.2%286 W · 391 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0621…0417backed Tampa Bay Rays49c135.9$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.31850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f50…069bbacked Tampa Bay Rays38c131.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.5816345.4%74 W · 89 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Tampa Bay Rays59c123.53$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.1582551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed Boston Red Sox63c95.24$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6048150.7%244 W · 237 L-19.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox54c87.81$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.028,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Tampa Bay Rays38c84$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0872154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf504…132ebacked Boston Red Sox64c68.75$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445540%22 W · 33 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Tampa Bay Rays35c68.08$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4784122.7%191 W · 650 L-81.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1a98…8754backed Tampa Bay Rays34c58.35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.512157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0199…4e86backed Tampa Bay Rays38c57.89$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8917460.3%105 W · 69 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa21b…9e94backed Boston Red Sox63c55.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3548651%248 W · 238 L-18.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Tampa Bay Rays36c52.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.661,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Boston Red Sox29c51.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.931,21250%606 W · 606 L+5.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Tampa Bay Rays37c51.35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3541141.4%170 W · 241 L-21.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Tampa Bay Rays36c50.34$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.222,99547.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L+12.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x089f…f599backed Tampa Bay Rays34c44.12$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.122458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+36.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays36c42.82$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.193,84142.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Tampa Bay Rays59c42.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.431,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x20c7…bc23backed Tampa Bay Rays37c40.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5410536.2%38 W · 67 L-8.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-18.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc78…f1f5backed Boston Red Sox63c39.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2526351.3%135 W · 128 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6d7…d801backed Tampa Bay Rays38c39.47$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.479749.5%48 W · 49 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid0%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Tampa Bay Rays35c36.09$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4658254.3%316 W · 266 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf3e…5d6cbacked Tampa Bay Rays37c27.73$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.473540%14 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Boston Red Sox56c27.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.255,14954.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L+231.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Boston Red Sox51c26.88$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.712,54645.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L-74.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fb4…d080backed Tampa Bay Rays38c26.65$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6314245.8%65 W · 77 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0670…877bbacked Tampa Bay Rays57c26.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc96b…438abacked Boston Red Sox63c23.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1527452.6%144 W · 130 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x303c…7cb1backed Tampa Bay Rays71c19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.51875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+32.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Boston Red Sox64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1017450.6%88 W · 86 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1024…9651backed Boston Red Sox64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1033556.1%188 W · 147 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.