MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe934d98c9557cdad0fee8e8ac2467f3d926641c6d613b865effa927f9720d452
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Yes | 46c | 1,368$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.49 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 46c | 840.36$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.86 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 54c | 673.43$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.38 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed No | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.96 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed No | 54c | 421.48$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.48 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a1…e6d5backed No | 53c | 370.56$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.56 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…bfc2backed No | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9956…44e0backed No | 54c | 253$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.38 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Yes | 45c | 195.4$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.93 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…c3b9backed No | 54c | 185.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Yes | 47c | 157$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c97…82adbacked No | 53c | 112.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 51c | 48.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Yes | 49c | 48.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Soxthis page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red SoxTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 13.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.