Us Politics · resolved market
Social security checks delayed/not sent before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c72fd5de3e961f76d2a86971dfbc5016357e0eccd178c4e4e78ba8574e1e00f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 16c | 6,548$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.83 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 4c | 3,405$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.85 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed No | 79c | 2,213$1,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.86 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,045$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 6c | 984.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…18d8backed Yes | 20c | 744.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 22c | 539.39$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.79 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 519$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f8…dd0cbacked No | 80c | 456.43$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.41 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 17c | 427$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 11c | 400.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 289.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 249.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 198.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 80c | 138$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 11c | 130$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa13…9c9abacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 32c | 99.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…c0cdbacked Yes | 17c | 84.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…c80fbacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 71c | 56.87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 79c | 49.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4076…04acbacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 71c | 25.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.