MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. St. Louis Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c7314fda97cb65e14ca6054b6aa7118222da4d815041365f4e1a2bfd57fb856
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,638 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6027…4320backed Houston Astros | 56c | 3,548$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.49 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 1,750$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.5 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 932$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.42 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Houston Astros | 64c | 797.65$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.94 | 230 | 36.1%83 W · 147 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 583.19$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.42 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 512.9$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.76 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 464.23$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.31 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Houston Astros | 56c | 368$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.08 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 77c | 304$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 28c | 300$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 299.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.99 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Houston Astros | 76c | 254.58$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.4 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Houston Astros | 30c | 253.47$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 249.98$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.49 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 207.09$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.56 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Houston Astros | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae9d…d417backed Houston Astros | 56c | 141.07$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed St. Louis Cardinals | 17c | 132.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.84 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 103.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed St. Louis Cardinals | 22c | 94.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Houston Astros | 67c | 71.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b1…a7b6backed Houston Astros | 56c | 60.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 44c | 59.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Houston Astros | 56c | 58.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 57.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 54.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Houston Astros | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Houston Astros | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 370 | 48.9%181 W · 189 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…f6afbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 32c | 39.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 310 | 32.9%102 W · 208 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…e4bcbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 33.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -9.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb070…4761backed Houston Astros | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Houston Astros | 55c | 24.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 22.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Houston Astros | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.