Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c893a01c3216aa871e8e259997dadc17f5d0bf72b63e551fa10c50ba0e9bb48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of Virtus.pro, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Virtus.pro | 19c | 1,551$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.06 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 48c | 1,041$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.43 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…4404backed Virtus.pro | 4c | 926.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Virtus.pro | 59c | 780.46$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.74 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Virtus.pro | 50c | 748$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc9…e444backed Virtus.pro | 18c | 632.83$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.51 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…c986backed Virtus.pro | 56c | 603.92$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.98 | 390 | 42.1%164 W · 226 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 33c | 599.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…c8f9backed Pipsqueak+4 | 48c | 511.22$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.32 | 388 | 55.2%214 W · 174 L | +29.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 59c | 442.5$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.25 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c52…677dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 36c | 383.48$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.02 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Virtus.pro | 59c | 343.67$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.2 | 256 | 39.5%101 W · 155 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f79…434abacked Virtus.pro | 23c | 306.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 496 | 44.6%221 W · 275 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Virtus.pro | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe843…0699backed Virtus.pro | 66c | 299.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.99 | 111 | 31.5%35 W · 76 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…a5edbacked Virtus.pro | 65c | 254.94$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.71 | 406 | 44.6%181 W · 225 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 39c | 246.81$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.47 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Virtus.pro | 67c | 236.23$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.75 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Virtus.pro | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…d0d9backed Virtus.pro | 70c | 199.82$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.87 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 34c | 189.26$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.91 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Pipsqueak+4 | 50c | 171.52$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.91 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62b…0f85backed Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 162.79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.09 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 55c | 160.32$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.81 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked Virtus.pro | 47c | 159.66$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Virtus.pro | 11c | 156.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Virtus.pro | 40c | 149.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 78c | 148.27$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed Pipsqueak+4 | 61c | 145.01$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…6b39backed Pipsqueak+4 | 52c | 136.13$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24eb…75eebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 30c | 133.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.64 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Pipsqueak+4 | 31c | 119.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.86 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6617…29bdbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 119$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.35 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Virtus.pro | 29c | 114.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Virtus.pro | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb2…0b31backed Pipsqueak+4 | 38c | 93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…9d8cbacked Virtus.pro | 62c | 83.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Virtus.pro | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 194 | 40.7%79 W · 115 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fca…e8edbacked Virtus.pro | 65c | 79.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 37c | 78.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed Pipsqueak+4 | 76c | 77.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x984b…88fbbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 54c | 70.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…3f62backed Virtus.pro | 43c | 59.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 111 | 50.5%56 W · 55 L | +14.2wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe249…4a49backed Pipsqueak+4 | 67c | 58.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…836dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 30c | 54.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Pipsqueak+4 | 66c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 37c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd49…515dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 38.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…66d1backed Virtus.pro | 31c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…0d8abacked Virtus.pro | 67c | 33.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 269 | 58.7%158 W · 111 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Pipsqueak+4 | 42c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed Virtus.pro | 65c | 30.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338d…0fe5backed Virtus.pro | 72c | 20.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed Pipsqueak+4 | 77c | 15.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 208 | 58.7%122 W · 86 L | +22.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Pipsqueak+4 | 77c | 13.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 245 | 27.3%67 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group BVirtus.pro won
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 WinnerVirtus.pro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.