TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Virtus.proof Virtus.pro, Pipsqueak+4
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,614
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,762

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,614 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8061…1ca2backed Virtus.pro60c2,407$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.13666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Pipsqueak+444c1,318$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.8455457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Pipsqueak+437c1,200$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44469644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Pipsqueak+445c1,196$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.6399844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Pipsqueak+418c1,126$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.281,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Pipsqueak+445c1,096$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.1761745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Pipsqueak+450c1,081$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.7747650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Virtus.pro49c841.49$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.161,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Virtus.pro42c770.38$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.3138855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Pipsqueak+465c708.1$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.2651049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Pipsqueak+468c658.84$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.2430356.4%171 W · 132 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…a5edbacked Pipsqueak+437c655.25$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.9440644.6%181 W · 225 L+0.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Virtus.pro64c616.48$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.4753844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Virtus.pro61c606.26$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.0514251.4%73 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked Virtus.pro53c600.74$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.7429240.4%118 W · 174 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Virtus.pro70c579.94$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.3471454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Pipsqueak+447c573.29$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.1541055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Virtus.pro47c569.08$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.132652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c52…677dbacked Virtus.pro47c516$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.968746%40 W · 47 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Virtus.pro61c499.76$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.9133549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa62b…0f85backed Virtus.pro56c495$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.811742.7%50 W · 67 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Virtus.pro53c491.79$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.0825147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Pipsqueak+437c486.95$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.1765441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Virtus.pro52c458.58$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.2969835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Pipsqueak+446c377.4$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.697142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked Pipsqueak+450c316.71$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.5633867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae10…d0d9backed Pipsqueak+445c298.53$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.3417353.2%92 W · 81 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Pipsqueak+438c290.53$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.951,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Pipsqueak+449c275.43$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.962,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Virtus.pro37c263.55$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.667043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Virtus.pro57c259.6$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.8325639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Virtus.pro68c259.53$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.991,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Virtus.pro44c256.55$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.481,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked Pipsqueak+453c237$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.6136759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc9…e444backed Pipsqueak+443c225.12$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5713228.8%38 W · 94 L-9.7wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-40%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked Pipsqueak+444c222.27$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.820043.5%87 W · 113 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked Pipsqueak+433c205.72$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.352649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7aab…15c5backed Pipsqueak+448c203$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.414647.8%22 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f9c…101cbacked Pipsqueak+465c200$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1308458.3%49 W · 35 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Pipsqueak+430c186.82$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.198248.8%40 W · 42 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22d8…b421backed Pipsqueak+456c186.47$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.141163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed Pipsqueak+439c185.5$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2648054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed Pipsqueak+447c179.12$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1812454.8%68 W · 56 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9a9…263cbacked Virtus.pro47c176.66$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.424137.3%90 W · 151 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Virtus.pro39c165.43$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.952,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Pipsqueak+453c159.31$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.686949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Virtus.pro56c153.21$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.8330647.4%145 W · 161 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb98d…c479backed Virtus.pro25c150$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.52657.7%15 W · 11 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+28.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x315f…85c6backed Virtus.pro63c134.91$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.7929347.4%139 W · 154 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Pipsqueak+450c126.18$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.752638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Pipsqueak+440c121.13$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9555147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6117…2fafbacked Pipsqueak+444c106.3$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7717373.4%127 W · 46 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Pipsqueak+440c103.64$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4688539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb2…0b31backed Pipsqueak+438c93$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.348246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Pipsqueak+447c92.93$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3986659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked Virtus.pro62c90.88$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.533351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6617…29bdbacked Pipsqueak+453c82.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.999045.6%41 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Pipsqueak+453c81.3$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4769033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfaca…51d1backed Virtus.pro50c73.72$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.866266.1%41 W · 21 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x66ed…d321backed Pipsqueak+447c72.34$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8834045.9%156 W · 184 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x338d…0fe5backed Pipsqueak+465c72.2$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.841643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked Virtus.pro50c69.84$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9212740.9%52 W · 75 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9010…df3ebacked Pipsqueak+462c67.87$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.962070%14 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e3e…a78abacked Virtus.pro41c58.82$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.741244.7%184 W · 228 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Pipsqueak+455c54$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4330250%151 W · 151 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec69…d6d8backed Virtus.pro62c50.66$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4920858.7%122 W · 86 L+22.1wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xeaff…5f75backed Pipsqueak+437c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.21per pick47cpaid-53.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Pipsqueak+439c49.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.551140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc182…1339backed Pipsqueak+445c42.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3428846.5%134 W · 154 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4470…c22ebacked Virtus.pro35c41.19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.771250%6 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+33.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Virtus.pro49c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.61,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed Pipsqueak+456c39.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3424527.3%67 W · 178 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x839f…c2cebacked Virtus.pro40c35.53$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2619951.8%103 W · 96 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Virtus.pro31c33.3$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.831,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf9be…a0c1backed Pipsqueak+444c31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6125253.2%134 W · 118 L+20.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe249…4a49backed Pipsqueak+445c29.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.54616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-75.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6bb…6b39backed Pipsqueak+453c27.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.443844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Virtus.pro73c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7536044.2%159 W · 201 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x796d…9551backed Virtus.pro71c19.08$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.532152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick43cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.