MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c95d86447db17333d1b5edc3f819d8d66957687b03f11ca0b00193586192925
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6732…d7f0backed No | 58c | 280.36$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.61 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Yes | 42c | 229.74$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.25 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0edb…92c3backed No | 62c | 162.34$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 38c | 142.13$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.12 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed No | 58c | 95.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…eababacked Yes | 42c | 91.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Yes | 42c | 62.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 38c | 51.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e9…48dfbacked Yes | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…7e96backed No | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed No | 62c | 39.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…326dbacked No | 63c | 39.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3056…2b09backed No | 61c | 19.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Marinersthis page
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Seattle MarinersTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.