MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe40c724275f233aaf180d7900d301b5b525d8fb31f16f78411dd2a645ba95e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Seattle Mariners | 16c | 1,647$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.04 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 20c | 1,175$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.6 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Seattle Mariners | 28c | 943.63$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.94 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 599.99$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Texas Rangers | 79c | 264.86$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Texas Rangers | 73c | 202.15$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 200.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Texas Rangers | 80c | 179.9$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 160.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 158.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Seattle Mariners | 15c | 158.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Seattle Mariners | 15c | 127.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 121.97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Texas Rangers | 69c | 114.54$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Texas Rangers | 67c | 102.12$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Texas Rangers | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 77.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Texas Rangers | 65c | 75.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Texas Rangers | 71c | 62.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Texas Rangers | 65c | 54.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 53.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Texas Rangers | 65c | 45.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Texas Rangers | 78c | 42.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Seattle Mariners | 29c | 37.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Texas Rangers | 66c | 37.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Texas Rangers | 80c | 33.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Texas Rangers | 66c | 27.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Texas Rangers | 67c | 25.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Texas Rangers | 71c | 22.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Texas Rangers | 70c | 19.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Texas Rangers | 69c | 14.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Seattle MarinersTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.