MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba940e6ebfe8f82df47ec043730533f63b0ab31a934190b3140027ee76f4c32d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 12,412$5,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,842.06 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 58c | 11,700$6,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,781.08 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 44c | 4,372$1,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,910 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 56c | 2,799$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.56 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 62c | 2,100$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.45 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 29c | 2,014$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.48 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 63c | 1,439$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.25 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 38c | 1,271$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.33 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Over | 39c | 1,106$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.33 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +221.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Over | 48c | 1,090$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.85 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 621.69$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 53c | 533.36$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.44 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 62c | 504.24$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.61 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked Under | 49c | 393.08$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.78 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.2wins | +0.38per pick | 53cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 63c | 388.03$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.58 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 38c | 300.87$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.1 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…cfffbacked Under | 48c | 296.84$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.04 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +37%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 61c | 241.78$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.29 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Over | 39c | 174.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.09 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 53c | 126.7$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 36c | 90.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 58c | 88.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 43c | 84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed Over | 51c | 74.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Over | 39c | 74.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed Over | 51c | 66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 54c | 63.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Over | 28c | 57.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 68c | 51.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf07d…aa71backed Over | 28c | 45.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked Under | 55c | 43.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 44c | 41.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…be63backed Under | 62c | 39.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…2413backed Under | 62c | 39.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 49c | 35.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 39c | 29.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 39c | 28.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…596dbacked Under | 63c | 24.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 48c | 24.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Over | 42c | 24.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Under | 56c | 24.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 52c | 20.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 61c | 18.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Seattle MarinersTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.