CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c9aa3d1b801c6c6c4d554031b4376f7f766921486ebdcd625f404d854f40c51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 100 Thievesof 100 Thieves, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Ursa | 36c | 2,191$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.89 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…8d9fbacked 100 Thieves | 63c | 1,615$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.22 | 345 | 59.1%204 W · 141 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked 100 Thieves | 58c | 1,603$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.48 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Ursa | 48c | 1,344$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.38 | 1,040 | 44%458 W · 582 L | -22.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Ursa | 46c | 1,189$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.9 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Ursa | 50c | 1,014$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.18 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked 100 Thieves | 57c | 1,002$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.82 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed 100 Thieves | 49c | 999.75$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.47 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed 100 Thieves | 54c | 943.2$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.06 | 1,407 | 38.9%547 W · 860 L | -41.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa | 40c | 808.55$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.33 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed 100 Thieves | 35c | 806$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.9 | 293 | 40.6%119 W · 174 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed 100 Thieves | 58c | 710.52$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.61 | 1,088 | 54.2%590 W · 498 L | +39.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ursa | 38c | 663.82$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.14 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 100 Thieves | 39c | 620.07$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.25 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…79bebacked Ursa | 13c | 613.08$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.02 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffa…7710backed 100 Thieves | 36c | 539.28$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.14 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Ursa | 38c | 523$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.59 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed 100 Thieves | 47c | 499.57$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.03 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a3…5857backed Ursa | 47c | 454$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.38 | 194 | 47.4%92 W · 102 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked 100 Thieves | 39c | 441.73$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.54 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Ursa | 55c | 418.81$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.63 | 780 | 43.7%341 W · 439 L | -21.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…b692backed 100 Thieves | 41c | 366.66$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.66 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed 100 Thieves | 56c | 357.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.29 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Ursa | 46c | 334.46$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.41 | 1,513 | 57.2%865 W · 648 L | +65.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Ursa | 53c | 303.2$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.38 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Ursa | 55c | 281.06$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.58 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Ursa | 53c | 269.72$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.16 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Ursa | 49c | 267.2$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.08 | 664 | 36.6%243 W · 421 L | -35.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…fcbdbacked Ursa | 46c | 261.04$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 354 | 49.7%176 W · 178 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Ursa | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…279bbacked 100 Thieves | 56c | 244.52$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.52 | 199 | 35.2%70 W · 129 L | -18.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6c…620bbacked 100 Thieves | 59c | 242.79$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Ursa | 46c | 217.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 559 | 41%229 W · 330 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed 100 Thieves | 34c | 205.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.88 | 1,319 | 44.2%583 W · 736 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Ursa | 41c | 205.81$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.22 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Ursa | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 573 | 22.3%128 W · 445 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9311…e731backed 100 Thieves | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Ursa | 13c | 192.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 424 | 27.1%115 W · 309 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Ursa | 45c | 175.9$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 1,630 | 43.2%704 W · 926 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…86c8backed 100 Thieves | 33c | 175$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.25 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Ursa | 41c | 170$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…b4ffbacked Ursa | 46c | 167.49$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.05 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Ursa | 28c | 142$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 600 | 32.3%194 W · 406 L | -49.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked 100 Thieves | 61c | 131.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 530 | 34.7%184 W · 346 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Ursa | 43c | 111.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Ursa | 35c | 109.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8e…8e0dbacked Ursa | 62c | 109.87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 503 | 58.6%295 W · 208 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked 100 Thieves | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 100 | 29%29 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Ursa | 17c | 97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 640 | 46.3%296 W · 344 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Ursa | 40c | 94.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Ursa | 39c | 92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed 100 Thieves | 54c | 85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 151 | 57%86 W · 65 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Ursa | 30c | 62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 163 | 11.7%19 W · 144 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2b…51c2backed Ursa | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Ursa | 40c | 59.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 807 | 40.3%325 W · 482 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked 100 Thieves | 52c | 53.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 483 | 19%92 W · 391 L | -65.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked 100 Thieves | 65c | 50.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x568d…87d0backed 100 Thieves | 59c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f57…27e4backed 100 Thieves | 41c | 43.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Ursa | 38c | 40.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Ursa | 47c | 37.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed 100 Thieves | 33c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 414 | 36.7%152 W · 262 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Ursa | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 807 | 41.3%333 W · 474 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed 100 Thieves | 59c | 33.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 965 | 43.5%420 W · 545 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked 100 Thieves | 64c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 558 | 43.5%243 W · 315 L | -16.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Ursa | 39c | 29.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Ursa | 49c | 27.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f2…61d4backed 100 Thieves | 64c | 23.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed 100 Thieves | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 152 | 77.6%118 W · 34 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Ursa - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoffs100 Thieves won
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner100 Thieves won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs Ursa (+2.5)Ursa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.