CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0ed7b9e7cc00f3baa14dd0d772192fd63f98cddf1a1c4733152bdbb24064922
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 100 Thievesof 100 Thieves, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Ursa | 72c | 4,774$3,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,416.04 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…8d9fbacked 100 Thieves | 64c | 3,349$2,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.66 | 345 | 59.1%204 W · 141 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…9f95backed Ursa | 75c | 2,012$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 142 | 42.3%60 W · 82 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Ursa | 66c | 1,814$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.79 | 1,790 | 59.2%1,060 W · 730 L | +106.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0487…33bdbacked Ursa | 79c | 1,516$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Ursa | 54c | 1,441$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.23 | 2,672 | 47.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L | -31.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0b…2debbacked 100 Thieves | 64c | 1,397$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.51 | 361 | 45.4%164 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed 100 Thieves | 40c | 1,300$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.3 | 1,110 | 54.2%602 W · 508 L | +38.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa | 72c | 1,205$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.8 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked 100 Thieves | 31c | 1,145$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.47 | 1,513 | 57.2%865 W · 648 L | +65.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed 100 Thieves | 27c | 1,091$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.82 | 1,431 | 39%558 W · 873 L | -41.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed Ursa | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…79bebacked Ursa | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked 100 Thieves | 50c | 888$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.2 | 1,040 | 44%458 W · 582 L | -22.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed Ursa | 64c | 763$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.71 | 294 | 40.5%119 W · 175 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed 100 Thieves | 42c | 611.85$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.01 | 2,456 | 44.5%1,093 W · 1,363 L | -67.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c8…3759backed Ursa | 64c | 575.34$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed 100 Thieves | 21c | 556.91$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.39 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed 100 Thieves | 38c | 528.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.95 | 5,876 | 37.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L | +71.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ursa | 27c | 466.59$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.98 | 5,580 | 47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L | +47.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…279bbacked 100 Thieves | 38c | 440.08$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.08 | 199 | 35.2%70 W · 129 L | -18.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed 100 Thieves | 50c | 434$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.27 | 780 | 43.7%341 W · 439 L | -21.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed 100 Thieves | 51c | 422.17$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.47 | 275 | 44%121 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ursa | 57c | 387.99$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.25 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Ursa | 65c | 338.55$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.71 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…f13bbacked Ursa | 71c | 337.18$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.02 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked 100 Thieves | 62c | 319.35$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.48 | 5,034 | 37.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L | -260.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d42…cde0backed 100 Thieves | 23c | 307.04$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.42 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed 100 Thieves | 45c | 249.78$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.46 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Ursa | 40c | 247$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.41 | 1,632 | 43.2%705 W · 927 L | -32.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed 100 Thieves | 38c | 239.01$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.18 | 2,664 | 30.8%820 W · 1,844 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Ursa | 45c | 212.4$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.86 | 3,544 | 29.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L | -289.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked 100 Thieves | 25c | 200.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.32 | 530 | 34.7%184 W · 346 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Ursa | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Ursa | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2,554 | 41.3%1,054 W · 1,500 L | -116.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed 100 Thieves | 56c | 171.26$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.79 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Ursa | 78c | 162.04$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.79 | 4,099 | 51%2,091 W · 2,008 L | +74.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4484…9defbacked 100 Thieves | 55c | 157.72$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2669…fa0dbacked Ursa | 32c | 153.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed 100 Thieves | 68c | 146.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 485 | 62.7%304 W · 181 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…6850backed Ursa | 69c | 140.58$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…fb3dbacked 100 Thieves | 76c | 125.76$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 354 | 66.1%234 W · 120 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Ursa | 32c | 111$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Ursa | 44c | 105.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 807 | 40.3%325 W · 482 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…e8ccbacked 100 Thieves | 44c | 102.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 154 | 41.6%64 W · 90 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked 100 Thieves | 53c | 95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 165 | 11.5%19 W · 146 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…f719backed 100 Thieves | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee1d…860ebacked Ursa | 69c | 73.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x199b…42c4backed 100 Thieves | 38c | 70.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -73%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed 100 Thieves | 31c | 64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 151 | 57%86 W · 65 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Ursa | 56c | 53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 424 | 27.1%115 W · 309 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed 100 Thieves | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2,393 | 46.7%1,118 W · 1,275 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2b…51c2backed Ursa | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked 100 Thieves | 45c | 43.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 807 | 41.3%333 W · 474 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Ursa | 27c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 182 | 33%60 W · 122 L | -22.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Ursa | 31c | 35.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 499 | 35.1%175 W · 324 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed 100 Thieves | 54c | 27.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e2…6099backed 100 Thieves | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +9.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Ursa | 48c | 26.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 597 | 3%18 W · 579 L | -221.0wins | -0.37per pick | 40cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 11-0.36 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked 100 Thieves | 53c | 26.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 681 | 47%320 W · 361 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Ursa - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoffs100 Thieves won
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner100 Thieves won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs Ursa (+2.5)Ursa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.