Asian League · resolved market
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d113e5ff6e328da6c23a8eb9838535160020c091d9c67ab65fe4b8a8176b922
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb911…8bb6backed Over | 45c | 8,998$4,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,049.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 8,169$4,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,751.91 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 42c | 639.73$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.6 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Over | 54c | 360$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Under | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 49c | 296.84$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.45 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…e900backed Under | 77c | 264.97$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1575…3d32backed Over | 67c | 149.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 64c | 112.3$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 52c | 106.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Over | 24c | 104.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +82%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4571…a952backed Under | 34c | 102.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd89d…d6b7backed Over | 79c | 100.48$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0e…cdf0backed Under | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…f294backed Over | 46c | 84.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…6516backed Over | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 34c | 55.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Under | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 96 | 72.9%70 W · 26 L | +19.3wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Under | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked Over | 51c | 48.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…4b12backed Under | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 58c | 45.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…3c59backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 62c | 43.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Over | 68c | 39.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8b…9cd7backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 61c | 30.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b4…87bfbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -8.8wins | -0.28per pick | 59cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 79c | 22.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…90b1backed Over | 67c | 20.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +16.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…d9c3backed Over | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 69c | 18.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -8.5wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5)FC Mito Holly Hock won
- Spread: V-Varen Nagasaki (-2.5)FC Mito Holly Hock won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.